Food security

1. CfR has been coming up with some good analysis on the current food crisis. Here is yet another one outlining different factors in place – biofuels, grain stocks, commodity markets and speculations, as well as demographics and climate change.

Food Price Volatility and Insecurity

2. Michael Robinson came up with some excellent investigation on financial speculations and commodity markets in his three-part documentary ’Bubble Trouble?’  (available at the BBC Documentaries podcast archive).

‘Across the world the cost of basic commodities is soaring. Endless demand from China is blamed for the record price of copper; flood, fire and drought for boosting the cost of food; and political tension in the Middle East for the sharply-rising price of oil. But are such fundamental forces the whole story?

Michael Robinson asks whether investors and speculators are making prices more volatile and examines the role of the giant traders, banks and companies which now increasingly dominate the world’s commodity markets.’

3. Finally, here is a report produced by international bodies such as World Bank, IMF, and OECD among others for a recent G20 agreecultural ministers meeting - Price Volatility in Food and Agricultural Markets: Policy Responses.

SCO (上海合作组织)

I should be putting more on China, and perhaps one day I will. For now I’ve just wanted to follow up on the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Kazakhstan. Here is a good coverage by Eric Walberg and M K Bhadrakumar.

SCO vs Bilderberg: Where are the real decisions being made?

‘China is clearly the power beyind the SCO, its “wheels” offering the region much more economically than Russia, but the common will of all to keep the US at bay is a balm to all. What better way to ease tensions between all these rivals than through SCO security drills enhancing the inter-operability of militaries and law-enforcement agencies?’

SCO steps out of Central Asia

‘The Astana summit’s call for a “neutral” Afghanistan is a major development. It now becomes the common position of Russia, China and the Central Asian states that they disfavor the establishment of any permanent US and/or NATO military presence in Afghanistan. …  Obviously, detailed discussions have been held behind the curtain between Karzai and the SCO leaders on the big questions of the post-2014 scenario in Afghanistan. Kazakh President Nurusultan Nazarbayev gave a valuable clue to SCO thought processes when he openly anticipated, “It is possible that the SCO will assume responsibility for many issues in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of coalition forces in 2014.”

Israel-Georgia-Russia

Here is an interesting triangle – Israel-Georgia-Russia. It is almost like a thriller story with money (lots of money), guns, pipelines (BTJ), intrigue, accusations, broken relationship, mended relationship, misleading relationship, perhaps all because of the proxy US-Russian relationship.

The conviction of two Israeli businessmen in Tbilisi seem to worsen the relationship between Israel and Georgia. Some suggest that Israel may even recognise Abkhazia.

Israeli Bribery Case Dampens Georgia-Israel Diplomatic Relations (part one) by  Richard Rousseau

Georgia-Israel: Close Allies to Economic and Political Standoff  (part two) by  Richard Rousseau

Before: ‘Against a backdrop of growing tensions between Tel-Aviv and Moscow, Israel sent nearly 1,000 instructors, under contract by private military contractors, to Georgia to train various kinds of special military units. Israeli military assistance has also been used in upgrading Georgian military equipment. Tbilisi has received electronic warfare systems, night-vision equipment, UAVs, mine-clearing and intelligence equipment, electronic security systems and rocket launchers. By the end of May 2010, the total amount contracted reached upwards of at least $250 million.’   See also Israeli arms sales to Georgia raise new concerns (2008)

And after: ‘Ziv told journalists that Global CST was in contact with Abkhazia to discuss only economic projects and that politics was not on the agenda. It is claimed that the talks addressed civilian-related.’

Oh what an x-polar world! Or from bipolarity via unipolarity to multipolarity (or nonpolarity?)

As much as I am fascinated with China, I still prefer to approach this world not as bi-polar (US – China)  but rather multiopolar, a position Noam Chomsky, Joseph Nye, and others like to promote, though a nonpolar world is also an interesting option (see Richard Haass – The Age of Nonpolarity). The World Bank has recently come up with a helpful report Global Development Horizons 2011 , also in a neat PPT form (and yes, we’re talking beyond BRICS here).

Here are a couple of relevant links and quotes from Haass, Chomsky and Nye:

Haass (on nonpolarity): ‘Finally, today’s nonpolar world is not simply a result of the rise of other states and organizations or of the failures and follies of U.S. policy. It is also an inevitable consequence of globalization. Globalization has increased the volume, velocity, and importance of cross-border flows of just about everything, from drugs, e-mails, greenhouse gases, manufactured goods, and people to television and radio signals, viruses (virtual and real), and weapons.’

Noam Chomsky – Noam Chomsky: Crises and the Unipolar Moment (SOAS, October 2009)

Noam Chomsky – Barack Obama and the ‘Unipolar Moment’

Chomsky (on multipolarity): ‘A world becoming truly multipolar, politically as well as economically, despite the resistance of the sole superpower, marks a progressive change in history.’

Joseph Nye – The Future of Power (Chatham House, May 2011) (also see his transcript where he elaborates on the metaphor of a three dimensional chessboard.

Joseph Nye (on multipolarity): ‘I use a metaphor of a three dimensional chessboard. On the top board are military relations among states. The world is uni-polar. There is one superpower. The United States is the only country that can project military power globally. And I think that it is going to remain that way for another decade or two. I don’t think China is going to catch the US in military power.

But go to the second board, economic relations amongst states. The world is multi-polar, and has been for decades. Remember in economics, this is where Europe can act as an entity. And when it does, Europe’s economy is larger than the economy of the United States, not to mention China. And in this area, this second board of economic relations, American power is balanced by Europe, China, Japan and others.

But now let me take you to this bottom board of the three dimensional game, the board of trans-national relations, which cross borders outside the control of governments. And here’s where power diffusion and the non-state actors come in. You can think of financial flows which are larger than the budgets of many countries. You can think of terrorist groups. You can think of cyber
terrorists, not crossing borders themselves, but sending electrons. You can think of impersonal processes like climate change or pandemics.’

Mapping unrest in the MENA region

Some news outlets have provided helpful interactive maps with key information on the countries in the Middle East and Africa. Here are just a few:

BBC: Middle East protests: Country by country

Following the fall of the presidents of Egypt and Tunisia, unrest has been spreading throughout the region. Could a domino effect sweep more leaders from power?

CNN: Unrest in the Middle East and Africa — country by country

Unrest has spread across the Middle East and North Africa. Here’s a look at what has happened — and what is happening — in various countries:

Economist: Mapping the Arab world

A statistical hub containing key data from all the countries of the Arab League

 

Guardian: Arab and Middle East revolt – an interactive map

A country-by-country guide to the spate of protests across the Middle East. Click on the map for key events

 The Israel Project: TIP’s Interactive Map on Unrest in Arab World

 

The Washington Post: Middle East and North Africa in turmoil

Anti-government protests are spreading rapidly through the Middle East and North Africa. Use this chart to keep up with all of the demonstrations, day by day. Click a country on the map or the tabs below to read more.

Economist Intelligence Unit

How disappointing… Manchester ‘better’ place to live than London, global study finds (Don’t think Boris was happy to hear that).

The EIU seems to be more about stability and ‘peace,’ so it is  no wonder that industrial cities such as Manchester and Pittsburgh scored so well. Canada and Australia are leading, and no US city made it to the top 25. 

Just another word cloud

Infomous news word cloud

Here is a new ‘toy’ created by Infomous with the data from Appinions. Now even our comments are analysed and visualised.

One of its current ‘hot topics’ is  Egypt Opinion Navigator that tracks online opinions on the events in Egypt.

The Seven Lean Cows?

FAO Food Price Index

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) rose for the seventh consecutive month, averaging 231 points in January 2011, up 3.4 percent from December 2010 and the highest (in both real and nominal terms) since the index has been backtracked in 1990.

 

Food costs at records, U.N. warns of volatile era

… “The new figures clearly show that the upward pressure on world food prices is not abating. These high prices are likely to persist in the months to come,” FAO economist and grains expert Abdolreza Abbassian said in a statement.

… ”We are entering an era of food volatility and disruptions in supplies. This is a very serious business for the world,” Sheeran told Reuters Insider TV on the sidelines of a U.N. Conference in London.

…the WFP’s Sheeran said the world was now in an era where it had to be very serious about food supply. “If people don’t have enough to eat they only have three options: they can revolt, they can migrate or they can die. We need a better action plan,” she said.

A domino effect

Ah Egypt, Egypt… what is going to happen?

Mubarak ‘fears chaos if he quits’

The Arab world has been transfixed by the recent dramatic events in Egypt and Tunisia. Popular street protests have swept across Egypt just days after similar protests saw Tunisia’s President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali flee his country. Could a domino effect sweep more leaders from power as it did around Eastern Europe in 1989?

Art-astic!

Yet another advance of Google – Art Project. Have your pick  – a gallery in London, Moscow, or perhaps New York? One can go and explore now. As never before…

‘A taste of the digital future for museums’ (Sir Nicholas Serota, Director of the Tate).